BTC Lab
BTC live chart, market analysis, and measured public-round reads.
Today’s market results
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LAB ADAPTATION
BTC · Coinbase · chart setups
Live price reconnecting
Chart reversal study · paper only
Freezes the first completed-candle BUY/SELL setup in each round, including wrong calls and unfillable quotes. It checks fresh Kalshi ask, bid, displayed depth, and fees. A paper entry is not a real fill.
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Early Candle Bias Study · experimental / paper research
Three independent methods using completed one-minute candles in the first five minutes. First directional reads are frozen; WAIT, missing candles, late captures and losses stay in the record. This does not change locked calls or place trades.
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Large Arrow Pullback Study RESEARCH
Completed 1-minute IMPULSE arrows only—not the small BUY/SELL labels. Primary: 25% body retracement → return to the impulse close; invalidation at its opposite extreme; expiry after 15 minutes. The arrow’s drawn position is not a target. No change to locked calls or trading.
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? Chart guide
↑ BUY / ↓ SELL mark completed-candle trailing-line crosses. Large arrows mark unusually large candles with volume.
Time buttons select candle intervals, not the Kalshi round or a forecast horizon. Each view adds a forming candle from observed live trades. A partial candle starts at the first trade seen after connecting, so its open and range may differ from the full exchange candle. Faded stream candles wait for official history; neither creates markers. The chart opens on the latest 36 bars; timestamps are Pacific.
BUY/SELL are research setup labels for BTC direction, not orders or instructions to buy a YES/NO contract. They mark a close crossing an ATR(10) × 1 trailing line, known only at candle close. The initial trend has no entry marker. New live-price ticks never create confirmed markers.
Large arrows require true range ≥1.8× the previous 14-bar average, volume ≥1.5× the previous 20-bar average, and candle body ≥60% of its range. These measure total exchange activity, not a verified large buyer/seller or whale. The gray momentum line remains a surge threshold—not price direction.
Market Regime is the selected interval’s completed-candle state. BULL or BEAR requires the ATR trail and Zero Lag trend to agree; NEUTRAL means they are flat or disagree. Momentum describes strength but does not independently choose the regime. This is context—not odds, a trade instruction, or a change to automatic entries. The header’s LIVE PREVIEW checks fresh price against the last closed one-minute levels; it can change between closes and is not a confirmed candle reading.
Support and resistance are display-only zones from completed candles. A solid zone needs at least two nearby closed-candle pivots; a dashed line is the rolling 20-bar low or high while a tested zone forms. The “tests” count nearby confirmed pivots in the last 80 completed candles, not trades at that price, a strength multiplier, or a win probability. Dashed 20-bar extremes are references, not confirmed tests. The live price can move through either level. These are not order-book walls and do not change calls or automatic entries.
Independent lab adaptation, not an exact TradingView script. These new markers have no forward win record; the locked call, its scoring, and notifications are unchanged. Historical chart markers are not proof of profit.
Round
WAITING
Market not found
Official line
—
Kalshi · BRTI settlement
Coinbase reference
—
Reference only
Distance
—
Waiting
Round clock
—
Closes —
Kalshi quotes
UP — · DOWN —
Spread — · Vol —
Live BTC decision
Current call, frozen T-mark, challenger, chart read, and flip risk.
Locked scorecard
WAIT
Targets T−8
Live now
WAIT
Connecting
T−5 challenger
NO CALL
Separate forward test
Chart read
WAIT
Grouped chart evidence
Flip risk
CLOCK UNKNOWN
Waiting for frozen call
Cross-market · confirmation only: ETH — · NDX — · DXY — · MIXED / NO CONFIRMATION
BTC money gate · exact round history
A correct direction is not a buy unless price and prior close-time results support positive value.
Frozen direction
WAIT
Lab UNKNOWN
Same close time
NO GRADED DATA
Current round · 30D
Called side at this time
LEARNING
0/8 minimum side samples
Entry math
ASK —
Fee included · hard cap 90¢
Conservative value
NOT PROVEN
Needs qualified price + history
Waiting for the frozen T−8 direction.
T−8 stays official · lower T-marks need 20 graded priced rounds
Group-capped synthesis · chart + technical count once · confidence is agreement, not win probability
Data definitions & important limitations
Coinbase trades: maker side is inverted to infer aggressive buy/sell flow. The Level-2 book is sampled from the top ten aggregated levels; order count is not multiplied into size.
Kalshi order book: visible bid levels are a snapshot and may be canceled.
Coinbase is a reference feed and can differ from the official CF Benchmarks BRTI settlement value.
Paper fills use displayed prices. New paper entries and early exits include the current general Kalshi taker-fee estimate; actual fills, fee treatment, and slippage can differ.
Cross-market candles: synchronized public returns measure co-movement, not causation; PAXG is only a gold proxy.
Short-horizon order-flow research: Early Pressure V2 tests persistent order flow, queue imbalance, microprice, and nearby-depth absorption as four capped evidence families. It starts as a forward-only shadow test, not a proven strategy.
Kalshi Market Stats
Live quotes when available · informational only
Quotes can change, be delayed, or be unavailable. The target is the exchange’s stated line; these are not locked calls, fills, or customer profits.
Chart readings are educational observations, not guaranteed outcomes. New paper-trade entry is paused; shared historical research remains visible.